alisa
01-21 11:13 AM
Assuming everyone stays the course, under these timelines
1. At least 5% of applicants will be sponsored by their American children.
2. Another 5% will have their first million and move to the investor's category.
The timelines would be a maximum of 20 years or so, at which point people would be sponsored by their children.
Ok. So thats a 10 percent decrease in accumulation rate.
Lets add another 10 percent decrease to that. These will be 10 percent that commit suicide, suffer a lay-off, or just pack up and go back.
So, the accumulation rate decreases to 15600, the initial backlogs from 2001, and 2002 also decreased to 80 percent their currently assumed values. Following are the results. Good news. Wait time decreases. Bad news, you still have to send your dependents back as we are not counting them.
The timelines are now less than 20 years.
For India. (ROW wait times are less than 5-10 years anyway according to this model)
YApp YC(New) YC(Old)
2001 2011 2013
2002 2015 2018
2003 2016 2020
2004 2018 2022
2005 2020 2024
2006 2021 2026
2007 2023 2028
2008 2024 2030
2009 2026 2032
2010 2027 2034
In anycase, there is a point to this exercise.
I don't want to pull numbers out of my ass. I want to make a good faith effort in estimating what the wait times would be with things being the way they are. A reasonable model should show that for Indians, the situation is hopeless. For others, the situation is painful. The current model shows that. I just want to give this some time, and get the best feedback and incorporate that in it.
Maybe, then I will be able to convince people (especially from India) to get active, and stop being ignoramuses asking innocently 'Oh! Is the situation really that bad?'
If anyone has any ideas on modelling EB-2 vs EB-3 for India, that would also be helpful. Given some data, simple math should give us good enough estimates.
1. At least 5% of applicants will be sponsored by their American children.
2. Another 5% will have their first million and move to the investor's category.
The timelines would be a maximum of 20 years or so, at which point people would be sponsored by their children.
Ok. So thats a 10 percent decrease in accumulation rate.
Lets add another 10 percent decrease to that. These will be 10 percent that commit suicide, suffer a lay-off, or just pack up and go back.
So, the accumulation rate decreases to 15600, the initial backlogs from 2001, and 2002 also decreased to 80 percent their currently assumed values. Following are the results. Good news. Wait time decreases. Bad news, you still have to send your dependents back as we are not counting them.
The timelines are now less than 20 years.
For India. (ROW wait times are less than 5-10 years anyway according to this model)
YApp YC(New) YC(Old)
2001 2011 2013
2002 2015 2018
2003 2016 2020
2004 2018 2022
2005 2020 2024
2006 2021 2026
2007 2023 2028
2008 2024 2030
2009 2026 2032
2010 2027 2034
In anycase, there is a point to this exercise.
I don't want to pull numbers out of my ass. I want to make a good faith effort in estimating what the wait times would be with things being the way they are. A reasonable model should show that for Indians, the situation is hopeless. For others, the situation is painful. The current model shows that. I just want to give this some time, and get the best feedback and incorporate that in it.
Maybe, then I will be able to convince people (especially from India) to get active, and stop being ignoramuses asking innocently 'Oh! Is the situation really that bad?'
If anyone has any ideas on modelling EB-2 vs EB-3 for India, that would also be helpful. Given some data, simple math should give us good enough estimates.
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amitps
09-26 12:22 PM
Ask her to write separately about us and mention IV! It appears the mistake was not intensional.
Stay in touch with her. We will need her later!
Yes, we are talking to her about this.
Stay in touch with her. We will need her later!
Yes, we are talking to her about this.
Berkeleybee
02-14 01:17 PM
Retrohatao,
Also want to tell you that as the CA team meets lawmakers we give them an informational packet that includes:
(1) Our presentation
(2) CIS Ombudsman's Report:
http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlibrary/CIS_AnnualReport_2005.pdf
(3) GAO Report on Backlogs at USCIS
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0620.pdf
(4) Exec Summary of NAS Rising Above a Gathering Storm
http://fermat.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html
(5) How Visa Date Cutoffs Are Established from July 2000 Bulletin
http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_bulletin/2000-07bulletin.html
Number (3), the GAO report describes the security check problem in tremendous detail. We give this report to lawmakers to remind them of the farcical nature of the security check problem. Note also that the CIS Ombudsman's report also includes critical commentary on the security check problem.
To reiterate, we are committed to removing ALL the hurdles in the process, not pick and choose between them.
best,
Berkeleybee
Also want to tell you that as the CA team meets lawmakers we give them an informational packet that includes:
(1) Our presentation
(2) CIS Ombudsman's Report:
http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlibrary/CIS_AnnualReport_2005.pdf
(3) GAO Report on Backlogs at USCIS
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0620.pdf
(4) Exec Summary of NAS Rising Above a Gathering Storm
http://fermat.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html
(5) How Visa Date Cutoffs Are Established from July 2000 Bulletin
http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_bulletin/2000-07bulletin.html
Number (3), the GAO report describes the security check problem in tremendous detail. We give this report to lawmakers to remind them of the farcical nature of the security check problem. Note also that the CIS Ombudsman's report also includes critical commentary on the security check problem.
To reiterate, we are committed to removing ALL the hurdles in the process, not pick and choose between them.
best,
Berkeleybee
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lunatic
03-12 12:28 PM
OMG these are all amazing! I can't imagine how much work went into these. I know nothing about 3d art/programs so I'm not sure what it takes to make curves and such. I loved Elisoe's for the openess and the pipes in the ceiling, BlueSun's for the tile work, and ThirdWorld's for the colors and curves. But I voted Grinch because the map on the wall is killer and looks very real. And plus I'm a cartographer so it just caught my eye. Makes me want to step in and take a closer look at it.
Great job everyone! This was a cool battle! :thumb:
Great job everyone! This was a cool battle! :thumb:
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chanduv23
09-19 02:46 PM
What if 485 was not filed but have an approved 140? Economy is taking big hits on the all the consulting firms even the big ones.I know this because I work for one and I was told budget spending on IT is going to be really tight moving forward for another couple of years espcially in financial sector.
Its going to be tough for everyone. Service industry is one such industry. try to avoid FT jobs in wall street.
Its going to be tough for everyone. Service industry is one such industry. try to avoid FT jobs in wall street.
desi3933
02-04 01:44 PM
Recently got Laid off. Here are my details:
-485 has been pending >180 days
-PD: Feb 2006
-Last day of work is 6th March, 2009
-EAD valid for another 6 months or so.
-I am working on H1-B, which is valid till 2010.
I understand that I can use AC21 and work on my EAD as long as the job is similar or same. I also understand that it is a good idea to get the H1-B transferred rather than using the EAD.
My comments are in blue ....
My questions are:
-Can one stay unemployed on EAD without jeopardizing the GC process?
Depends on timing for RFE and approval time. At the time of RFE and I-485 approval, beneficiary should have permanent job offer that matches with LC Job duties. Technically, one can be unemployed during AOS stage, as long as he/she has permanent job offer that begins after I-485 approval.
-Do I have to inform USCIS that I am unemployed as of March 6th, 2009 in case I do not find a job?
There is no such regulation at this time.
-Do I inform the USCIS in case I find a job and work on my EAD or my H1-B.
There is no such regulation at this time.
I mean when do I have to inform USCIS if at all?
In the event of RFE.
Also, I live in Windsor, Canada, and used to commute everyday to work to Detroit. Can I stay in Windsor subsequent to March 6th in case I don't find a job. Will it affect my 485 process?
Maintaining US presence is better IMHO. Typically trips, that are less than 24 hours, are not counted as presence outside USA, therefore daily trip to Windsor was ok.
Contributions: $350 +
Led various fund raising efforts for Tristate Area
Was in the DC rally
Priority Date: Feb 2006
Good Luck.
____________________
Not a legal advice.
US Citizen of Indian Origin
-485 has been pending >180 days
-PD: Feb 2006
-Last day of work is 6th March, 2009
-EAD valid for another 6 months or so.
-I am working on H1-B, which is valid till 2010.
I understand that I can use AC21 and work on my EAD as long as the job is similar or same. I also understand that it is a good idea to get the H1-B transferred rather than using the EAD.
My comments are in blue ....
My questions are:
-Can one stay unemployed on EAD without jeopardizing the GC process?
Depends on timing for RFE and approval time. At the time of RFE and I-485 approval, beneficiary should have permanent job offer that matches with LC Job duties. Technically, one can be unemployed during AOS stage, as long as he/she has permanent job offer that begins after I-485 approval.
-Do I have to inform USCIS that I am unemployed as of March 6th, 2009 in case I do not find a job?
There is no such regulation at this time.
-Do I inform the USCIS in case I find a job and work on my EAD or my H1-B.
There is no such regulation at this time.
I mean when do I have to inform USCIS if at all?
In the event of RFE.
Also, I live in Windsor, Canada, and used to commute everyday to work to Detroit. Can I stay in Windsor subsequent to March 6th in case I don't find a job. Will it affect my 485 process?
Maintaining US presence is better IMHO. Typically trips, that are less than 24 hours, are not counted as presence outside USA, therefore daily trip to Windsor was ok.
Contributions: $350 +
Led various fund raising efforts for Tristate Area
Was in the DC rally
Priority Date: Feb 2006
Good Luck.
____________________
Not a legal advice.
US Citizen of Indian Origin
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fromnaija
02-14 10:33 AM
I am also from ROW and I support IV's agenda of removal of country quotas among other things. If IV's agenda was only about removal of quotas, then I wouldn't be here too.
However if IV was only about removal of country quotas and not other issues, then it is fair to say that I wouldn't be here.
However if IV was only about removal of country quotas and not other issues, then it is fair to say that I wouldn't be here.
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Jaime
09-10 03:49 PM
"We don't sponsor" - The favorite new phrase of most companies' HR department employees. Most of the times they don't even know what that means, but the H1-B visa has gotten such a bad rap for being so cumbersome, unjust, cruel, expensive and difficult that companies just don't want to deal with it anymore. Ask any current international student how many times this unfairness has driven them to tears. That's why they are going back home to compete against the U.S.!!!
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eastindia
08-11 02:57 PM
Please email to Compete America (info@competeamerica.org) see if they can help us at this point.
Just say number of years waiting for green card under EB3 category.
They know the issue very well..All they need is some momentum....
Search | CompeteAmerica (http://www.competeamerica.org/search/node/india%20EB%E2%80%903)
See their board and IV name is in it
Just say number of years waiting for green card under EB3 category.
They know the issue very well..All they need is some momentum....
Search | CompeteAmerica (http://www.competeamerica.org/search/node/india%20EB%E2%80%903)
See their board and IV name is in it
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greencard_fever
09-05 02:43 PM
[QUOTE=imv116]
Nothing wrong, but just the fact that hiring becomes difficult and and people with genuine experience will also have to go through stringent hiring procedures. Say someone really has 8 years experience and someone is faking 8 years experience, both are competing for the same job and as a hiring manager, if the job is filled with someone with fake exp and this person does not perform, it will have a rippling effect. I have seen this happen.
chandu,its not same all the time as i believe in the candidate potential then the experience..i have seen so many case in my past 5 yrs of experience that a Guy who has 8yrs of experience failed to impress the hiring manager and technical lead in an personal interview where as a fresh graduate from well know university cracked the same interview a got the project� IT is the place where we all have to learn new thing every day...experience only matters how the a person approaching to get the things done...it all depends on how each individual is capable of job get done..this is what i belive in...no offence to any one.
Nothing wrong, but just the fact that hiring becomes difficult and and people with genuine experience will also have to go through stringent hiring procedures. Say someone really has 8 years experience and someone is faking 8 years experience, both are competing for the same job and as a hiring manager, if the job is filled with someone with fake exp and this person does not perform, it will have a rippling effect. I have seen this happen.
chandu,its not same all the time as i believe in the candidate potential then the experience..i have seen so many case in my past 5 yrs of experience that a Guy who has 8yrs of experience failed to impress the hiring manager and technical lead in an personal interview where as a fresh graduate from well know university cracked the same interview a got the project� IT is the place where we all have to learn new thing every day...experience only matters how the a person approaching to get the things done...it all depends on how each individual is capable of job get done..this is what i belive in...no offence to any one.
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gandhig
03-17 12:45 PM
EB3 - PD Nov 2004
EAD - July 2007; FP done
Masters degree from US but employer filed under EB3
EAD - July 2007; FP done
Masters degree from US but employer filed under EB3
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Refugee_New
07-30 11:19 AM
LOL.
The issue of GOD and religion has been discussed ad nauseum by many great thinkers and philosophers (Spinoza, Voltaire, Hume, Russel etc.). Most of us do not read their opinions and try to broaden our knowledge. We never get beyond what our parents taught us about GOD and religion. What is worse still is that the allegorical descriptions in religious texts are now treated as facts and we often end up arguing over these as well.
Having said that, there is nothing wrong in believing in GOD. There is also nothing wrong if someone is not convinced about the existence of GOD. There are valid philosophical arguments for both cases. Lack of mutual respect and failing to see others point of view is what is causing this rift.
You are true. Every religion preaches their followers to give atmost respect to people of other faith. Being a weak humanbeing we always tend to forget these simple rules.
The issue of GOD and religion has been discussed ad nauseum by many great thinkers and philosophers (Spinoza, Voltaire, Hume, Russel etc.). Most of us do not read their opinions and try to broaden our knowledge. We never get beyond what our parents taught us about GOD and religion. What is worse still is that the allegorical descriptions in religious texts are now treated as facts and we often end up arguing over these as well.
Having said that, there is nothing wrong in believing in GOD. There is also nothing wrong if someone is not convinced about the existence of GOD. There are valid philosophical arguments for both cases. Lack of mutual respect and failing to see others point of view is what is causing this rift.
You are true. Every religion preaches their followers to give atmost respect to people of other faith. Being a weak humanbeing we always tend to forget these simple rules.
more...
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Macaca
09-11 01:38 PM
It's good to have money and the
things money can buy,
but it's good, too,
to check up
once in a while and
make sure that
you haven't lost
the things money can't buy
George Horace Lorimer
things money can buy,
but it's good, too,
to check up
once in a while and
make sure that
you haven't lost
the things money can't buy
George Horace Lorimer
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uma_vishi
02-24 12:10 PM
i'm on L1B visa.I came to US on L1B in 2005 with one year petition and got extension
for 3 years. meanwhile i left to India in June 2007. And then i came back with new L1B petiotion in Oct 2007 which is valid till Sep-2010.Now my question is
1) Is my L1B stay reached to maximum or do i still have 2 years left with my new L1B.
2) If i apply for H1 this year how many years of stay i'll get with H1B.
Please help me with this madam as soon as possible.
Thanks in Advance.
for 3 years. meanwhile i left to India in June 2007. And then i came back with new L1B petiotion in Oct 2007 which is valid till Sep-2010.Now my question is
1) Is my L1B stay reached to maximum or do i still have 2 years left with my new L1B.
2) If i apply for H1 this year how many years of stay i'll get with H1B.
Please help me with this madam as soon as possible.
Thanks in Advance.
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cookbook
11-27 09:22 AM
I am trying to self file I765, I want to paperfile since I don't want to go for photos and other stuff to the Uscis center. My lawyer has filed my earlier applications for employment authorization and parole. He has filled all my previous employment authorization dates on the I765 forms, however I cannot fill more than 2 dates on the I765 forms, do I convert the form into word and fill it and reconvert it back? I have to file next week, please help.
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stldude
07-24 11:53 AM
I see that USCIS release a press release on 7/20 and it says the time complaince for Nebraska Center is 8/1. Does it mean that July 2nd filers will get receipt by 8/1 ( i know i'm expecting too much from USCIS)... When can we expect the receipt notices.. I guess i'm a bit nervous now..
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senthil1
06-12 03:10 PM
If no H1b restrictions then mostly lottery for new H1b for every year( I think 115k is not enough as Consulting companies will rush to get the quota on first day) unless unlimited H1b was given. Lottery is very bad for good companies. Best way is to put restrictions only for new H1bs and exclude from extensions and transfers.
If people think that after CIR fails, we will have a better chance of getting favorable provisions with some other Bill or on coat tails of appropriation bills, it could be a risky gamble.
However, looking at the mood of Senate there is a very good chance that post-CIR we might be thrown a curve ball with some hard line H1B restrictions and fee increases extracted from almost passed CIR. So opposing CIR due to H1 alone is not the best strategy.
CIR is on the table because there are lot of interests driving its existence. If Compete America and us(IV) cannot drive in a small amendment into a popular bill like this, it would be a big blow. Is there enough bite in the coalition to create our own bill or fight an anti-H1 wave out there? That's up for judgement.
My point is, please do not assume H1B status quo will stay that way even if CIR fails. Like someone pointed out in these forums, big Corporations might enlist these anti-consulting restrictions/fee increases and use as compromise to increase H1 numbers(even post CIR).
And we thought life was tough now, imagine paying 10K for every H1 extension and not being able to consult and status quo on current GC system still place. Thats a hair raising thought for me.
If people think that after CIR fails, we will have a better chance of getting favorable provisions with some other Bill or on coat tails of appropriation bills, it could be a risky gamble.
However, looking at the mood of Senate there is a very good chance that post-CIR we might be thrown a curve ball with some hard line H1B restrictions and fee increases extracted from almost passed CIR. So opposing CIR due to H1 alone is not the best strategy.
CIR is on the table because there are lot of interests driving its existence. If Compete America and us(IV) cannot drive in a small amendment into a popular bill like this, it would be a big blow. Is there enough bite in the coalition to create our own bill or fight an anti-H1 wave out there? That's up for judgement.
My point is, please do not assume H1B status quo will stay that way even if CIR fails. Like someone pointed out in these forums, big Corporations might enlist these anti-consulting restrictions/fee increases and use as compromise to increase H1 numbers(even post CIR).
And we thought life was tough now, imagine paying 10K for every H1 extension and not being able to consult and status quo on current GC system still place. Thats a hair raising thought for me.
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senthil1
08-15 06:28 PM
I think after next October PD will be 2005 or later for EB2 and 2002 or later for EB3. The argument of taking 10 years for EB3 is just speculation and that much worse situation will never happen unless if they increase H1b numbers so much. Even after increasing H1b for US MS degree holders EB2 situation was not worst. Still I think less than 20% of H1b persons are applying GC. Reason is Top 4 Indian companies and some american consulting companies are not processing gc.
Unfortunately, China and ROW EB2 are 2 and 3 years ahead of INDIA EB2!!!
Hopefully, INDIA EB2 and EB3 moves forward in OCT with new allocation.
The DOS method of PIECE MEAL ALLOCATION NEEDS TO CHANGE!!
Unfortunately, China and ROW EB2 are 2 and 3 years ahead of INDIA EB2!!!
Hopefully, INDIA EB2 and EB3 moves forward in OCT with new allocation.
The DOS method of PIECE MEAL ALLOCATION NEEDS TO CHANGE!!
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new2gc
06-11 08:43 AM
They have given up looking for job because we (tax payers) are feeding them with unemployment benefits.......that are almost equal to normal wage of a hard working person..... whose fault is that?? Immigrants?? oh yeah..
>>>>>
Dear Colleague:
Since the recession started in December of 2007, nearly 8 million Americans have lost their jobs and the unemployment rate has nearly doubled. In total, 15 million Americans are officially unemployed, another 8.8 million Americans are working part-time only because they cannot find a full-time job, and more than one million workers have given up ooking for work altogether <<<<<<
>>>>>
Dear Colleague:
Since the recession started in December of 2007, nearly 8 million Americans have lost their jobs and the unemployment rate has nearly doubled. In total, 15 million Americans are officially unemployed, another 8.8 million Americans are working part-time only because they cannot find a full-time job, and more than one million workers have given up ooking for work altogether <<<<<<
gsc999
04-08 11:02 AM
I think -We have to come to our senses. The law wants to treat us as slaves. Do the work and go back. They do not want to give the opportunity to have the american dream. They do not have problem with mexicans, or arabic country people, or anybody. All they want is - we do not want smart talented ones to take our white collar jobs.
We are screwed by our Desi employers, the law. We do it for $. So it is really upto us to choose from. Money or respect.
When I see fellow indians, at the age of 40, I feel pity. Most of us would see that they are in dilema as what to do. What they are doing is correct. They live a succumbed life.
Choose life !! is the better option !!
-------
yawn. Weak post. Just substitute "I" for wherever you use "We" start with "I have to come to my senses." Don't patronize and don't be condescending.
We are screwed by our Desi employers, the law. We do it for $. So it is really upto us to choose from. Money or respect.
When I see fellow indians, at the age of 40, I feel pity. Most of us would see that they are in dilema as what to do. What they are doing is correct. They live a succumbed life.
Choose life !! is the better option !!
-------
yawn. Weak post. Just substitute "I" for wherever you use "We" start with "I have to come to my senses." Don't patronize and don't be condescending.
alisa
01-18 09:41 PM
I have been unable to access that powerpoint.
Could something please be posted here.
Could something please be posted here.
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