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  • srkamath
    07-18 07:07 PM
    My guess
    Best case : 12 months
    Worst care : 4 years

    sachug22,

    I agree with your initial post on this thread. In all likelihood, we will end up with ~ 50k - 55k, EB3s issued this fiscal.
    Last year they issued ~ 6200 EB2-IN, and dates progressed one-year.

    Considering the EB1 spillover plus the FB spillover, we will have ~ 15k - 20k available for EB2 In/CH for use in Aug/Sep08. If the USCIS does its job well, then that should be enough to propel EB2-IN dates forward by two-years April-04.

    I believe a sizeable number of applicants with PD before Jun-06 will get their GCs approved before Sep-30-2008.

    I know my case is stuck in background checks, hopefully it is past 180 days - i have no way of knowing.

    I will be excessively anxious (like most others here) till Aug 1st week, if there is a deluge of approvals - good i'll probably get more anxious.
    If there is only a trickle, i'll forget the whole Aug VB and go back to my plan-A (i.e. forget the GC and get on with living).

    EB2-IN, PD Oct-28-2007





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  • needhelp!
    11-25 06:25 PM
    I got the same reply. Its standard when they send you your case number.

    Here's my case Number: NRC2008065126





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  • amitjoey
    02-15 02:20 PM
    I don\'t want to stand in line three times longer just because 60 percent of the applicants are natives of one country. Look what\'s going on with H-1B. There is no per-country quota and ROW is simply screwed.

    How is ROW getting screwed?. Look at the situation as individuals applying irrespective of country of birth. Last Year, there were 120,000(approx) applicants and only 60,000(approx) H1-b1 visas. NOW: It just happens that a lot or 60%were natives of one country. But that does not mean anything... There could be more ROW applicants who could apply, no body is stopping them. There are just not enough ROW applicants that employers can find.
    Also remember countries like India, China do not qualify for diversity visas. So an ROW applicant also has that advantage. Most people from small african countries and others qualify to apply there. China, India, Phillipines, Mexico are also backlogged in the family category. ROW has that advantage too.





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  • Gravitation
    02-20 05:18 PM
    Ok guys before you shoot it down heres my calc for EB2 pending apps from 2000 to Dec 2003. Obviously its a rough estimate, who knows how many eb3s switched, labor subs etc etc etc.

    From pending apps from 2000 to 2003 dec are about 96. Assume represents 1% of total population so it would be 9600. Each app has about 1.5 dependents so about 15,000? If you assume as lower say 0.5% then number would obviously increase to 29,000.

    Ok now shoot me down.
    I had done some calculations long ago, it guestimated that 5~6% of people are registered with traciitt.



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  • lahiribaba
    03-10 11:44 AM
    You are partly right, but the problem does not end there. Lot of it has to do with the disorderly way the applications were/are being picked up. All the old applications were pushed to BECs and newer perm applications were picked up for processing. The dates were abruptly moved forward which allowed USCIS to approve newer 485 applications before the dates were pushed back. I am a victim of both these cases� Also, there has been a lot of wastage of visa numbers. If none of these happened I am sure the EB3 dates would have move forward without getting stagnated in 2001.

    well you got to re plumb once in a while dont you?

    the water and drainage system that worked 100 years ago does not work now ... or does it?





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  • delhiguy
    07-04 08:03 PM
    Excellent

    I agree with you 100 % , I believe having excessive media coverage and lawsuits , would bring the GC number and process in the open , and most americans would oppose the GC as they oppose H1B.

    If i was a american i would surely be happy with USCIS/DOS creating so much trouble for the immigrants to my country , who i believe are taking my job.

    Everyone blaming CIS/DOS needs to understand some basics behind this mess. Before going to conclude anything, first, one should read all the ombudsman reports for last 3 or 4 years. Former INS or current USCIS�s functions and operations were not questionable and not known to public till ombudsman office was established. Ombudsman has helped customers and keep helping to improve efficiency of CIS. Ombudsman main concern (or goal) have been over the 4 years are

    1. Primarily reducing backlogs in any application type particularly 485 and timely approval of any application.

    2. Abolish the need for interim benefits like EAD, AP etc. If they approve 485 in 6 months, then most of us do not require EAD and AP.

    3. Reduce the wastage of EB visas, as unused EB visas can not be carried over to next year (use it or lose it). Since 1992, about 200,000 EB visas were lost permanently. In 2003 alone, they issued only 64,000 EB visas and lost 88,000.

    The recent report to congress, the ombudsman scolded the CIS left and right for its inefficiency and highlighted how many EB visas were lost for ever, in last 10 years despite the very heavy demand for employment based green cards. Based on his report, both CIS and DOS try to obey the direction of ombudsman and modifying the 485 adjudication procedure. The reason for loss of EB visas in previous years not only due to inefficiency in processing the 485s on time, it is also due to lengthy background check delay by FBI, where USCIS has no control. For example, in 2003 they could approve about 64,000 485s only. It is partially due to USCIS inefficiency and partially due to lengthy FBI check. There are 300,000 (AOS+ Naturalization applicants) cases are pending with FBI for name check. Out of which, about 70,000 cases are pending more than 2 years. Out of 300,000 victims of name check delay, how many are really threat to the country? Perhaps none or may be few! Remember that lot of Indians also victims of name check and all the victims of name check delay already living in USA.

    The big problem is the timing when USCIS takes the visa number for a 485 applicant. Till 1982, INS took visa number for a 485 applicant as soon as they receive the application. Visa number assigned to a 485 applicant without processing his/her application. He/She may not be a qualified applicant to approve 485. Still they assign to them. If they found, the applicant is ineligible, they suppose to return the number back to DOS. However, this practice was modified after 1982. USCIS is taking visa number only at the time of approval of 485, after processing the 485 for a lengthy period. For some people, particularly victims of name check, 485 processing time vary between 2 to 5 years. Though, it is a good practice it is not the ideal or efficient process, due to name check delay. Let us assume about 150,000 are victim of name check in 2003. If they assigned all the numbers to these 150,000 applicants at the time they filed 485, the 88,000 visa numbers might have not been lost in 2003. Now what happens, those who filed 485 in 2003 (victim of name check delay) will take EB numbers from 2007 or 2008 quota, if FBI clears his/her file in 2007 or 2008. This will push back those who are going to file 485 in 2007 or 2008.

    That why, ombudsman in his 2007 yearly report to Congress recommended to practice the old way of assigning visa number to 485 applicants, to minimize the loss of visa numbers.

    Now lets come to July Visa bulletin mess.

    Because of tight holding of visa cutoff dates for EB3 and EB2 for the first 8 months of 2007 (From Oct 2006 to May 2007) USCIS approved only 66,000 485s. For the next 4 months they have about 60K to 70K numbers available. If they approve the pending 485s with slower speed or old cut off dates, there is a potential estimated loss of 40,000 EB visas by Sep 2007. Thats why, based on ombudsman recommendation, DOS moved considerably the cut off date for June. When they took inventory in May, there are about 40,000 documentarily qualified 485 applications were pending due to non-availability of visa numbers. The �documentarily qualified 485 applications� mean the application filed long time back and processed by USCIS and cleared the FBI name and criminal check, and found eligible for green card. Apart from 40,000 documentarily qualified 485 applications, there is thousands of 485 applications (documentarily not yet qualified) pending due to name check. When DOS checked with USCIS they found only 40,000 documentarily qualified 485 applications (in all EB categories put together) are pending. However, the available visas are more than 40,000 (60to 70K). Then they made with out consulting properly with USCIS they made �current� for all EB categories. This is how they determine �current� or �over-subscribed� and how they establish cutoff dates.

     If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered �Current.�

     Whenever the total of documentarily qualified applicants in a category exceeds the supply of numbers available for allotment for the particular month, the category is considered to be �oversubscribed� and a visa availability cut-off date is established.

    There is nothing wrong with DOS to make all categories �current� for a July bulletin as per they definition of demand vs supply estimation to meet the numerical limitations per year. Perhaps the DOS did not aware of other impact of making all categories �current� ie fresh guys entering into I-485 race. Because of �current� there will be additional tons and tons of new filings. The rough estimation is about 500K to 700K new 485s and same amount of EAD and AP applications will be filed in July. But the available number is just 60K, and there are already 40K documentarily qualified 485s are pending more than 6 months to 3 years to take the numbers from remaining 60K pool. That leaves just 20K to fresh 485 filings. If 700K new 485 filed in July, it will choke the system. People have to live only in EAD and AP for next 5 to 10 years.

    For example, an EB3-Indian whose LC approved through fast PERM on July 30th 2007, can apply 140 and 485 on July 31st 2007 as per July visa bulletin. For his PD, it will take another 10 years for the approval of 485. During this 10 year period, he/she has to live in EAD and AP and need to go for finger print every 15 month.

    Therefore by making �current� for all EB categories is a billion dollar mistake by both DOS and CIS first part.. Another mistake is timing of rectifying mistake. USCIS and DOS and law firms should have discussed immediately about the potential chaos about making current and rectified move the cut-off to reasonable period to accommodate additional 20K 485s. If they modified the VB, with in couple of days after July 13, then there wont be a this much stress, time and wastage of money.

    There is nothing wrong in issuing additional advisory notice or modified visa bulletin to control the usage of visa numbers. The only mistake both USCIS and DOS is made is the timing of issuance of modified visa bulletin or advisory notice. It indicates poor transparency in the system and bad customer service. Now, they used all 140K visas this year. Assigning remaining 20K visa numbers to already pending 485s which are not yet documentarily (name check delayed cases) qualified is not the violation of law. It was old practice. In fact, ombudsman recommends it. They have the trump card which is Ombudsman report and recommendations. Therefore they are immune to lawsuit. Therefore, filing the law-suit is not going to help. The only two mistakes I see is 1) making all categories as �current� in June 13 and second is modifying VB only on July 2.

    My recommendation is to IV is capitalize the situation in constructive way. Law suit only bring media attention with the expense of money and time. The constructive approach is getting an immediate interim relief by legislation to recapture unused visas in previous years to balance the supply vs demand difference.



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  • nc14
    10-19 11:03 AM
    Sent mine on Saturday.

    Keep this going folks we need to help ourselves.



    http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/cbo_30sept08.pdf

    11.
    Question: We have a number of date availability questions. They are:
    a.
    What is the demographic makeup of those in the current backlog? Can we get data on their nationality?
    Response: No, demographic data is not currently available and would require a special Information Technology Service Request (ITSR) be drafted and submitted to the Office of Information Technology www.uscis.gov
    (OIT). The administrative burden on USCIS to pursue an ITSR solution and add an additional workload on the O&M contractor cannot be justified given the level of effort involved.





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  • at0474
    12-22 12:24 AM
    lazycis,

    Thanks for the quick reply.That was useful information. I also read the document on the link you posted.

    This had happened to a dependant visa holder(h4). It was not renewed in a timely manner alongwith h1b. However, passports were sent for revalidation (in the past, we used to be able to do revalidatoin of visa by mailing the passports to st.louis) and the passports were stamped with new visas. Upon realizing overstay later on (over 1 year), according to legal counsel, she left the country and re-entered with a new I-94. This had made it possible to fall into the cycle of h4 extensions since last entry.

    However, her pending I-485 seems problematic.

    Is there any way out other than hoping that IO would not notice it? Her brother is a U.S citizen and her daughter too. Does that help? I doubt it...

    Thanks.



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  • mirage
    02-03 01:32 PM
    You first thought of calling me jerk privately, than changed your mind...Anyway, waiting in this country for 10 years without Green Card, I am certainly a jerk, atleast that's how I felt when I saw the Fijian guy who landed here in 2007 got his Green Card, you are right for that point. First point of your's that I didn't understand was 'I may annoy people'. I acknowledged that in my first post itself. If being ROW I was to get my Green Card in 1 year, I will certainly be unhappy if someone try to make it 2 years...secondly you need to tell me how this effort is going to hurt the entire effort, I am looking for 15-20 volunteers who can work with me on this. Since this is also on IV's agenda so, it is certainly not against IV's goals, But I will try to work only on 1 goal. I am not stopping IV to continue with it's efforts. The whole point is, as we have seen in all the debates, lawmakers see Visa recapturing as new visas. Go around and read some stuff, America is more anti immigrant today than it was ever, in this scenario, getting a bill passed with recapturing Visas etc. sounds impossible to me(I hope I am wrong), but taking of country quota or increasing country limits may be to 15% will bring lot of relief to the hugely baclogged countries...Moreover as I mentioned when a strong lawmaker like Zoe Logfren supports such thing, I'm sure she'll be ready to bring something for it....again don't tell me it is not possible. I know it is impossible, but atleast I'll give it a shot...
    I did want to PM you, but thought of posting it on the open forum. So here is what I have to say.

    You are a total jerk because you do not understand, and you do not want to understand that your actions could annoy people and harm the effort. There is a time for everything. Just because we are all feeling the fear of the shrinking economy, doesn't mean that we have to do something, which may even harm the entire effort. Waiting for the right moment is better than doing wrong things at the wrong time and failing.



    .





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  • amar123
    07-03 11:12 PM
    Do you know even to come to site and get some info also need money..

    Not to hurt you but just giving one small example of why we need money...
    I agree hosting /maintaining a site does take quite a bit of resources, I am not referring to it in this thread. But, I was hoping that IV can make a distinction of what it plans to do for the lawsuit from what AILF does. As I had mentioned, this would make it only more meaningful for IV members to contribute :)


    I am not hurt, like I said I appreciate the effort you guys are putting in.

    Also, I added another dig on the USCIS scandal:
    http://digg.com/politics/USCIS_Visa_scandal (http://digg.com/politics/USCIS_Visa_scandal)

    Guys, digging is free, and if we can get it to 1000 digs, I am sure people will begin to notice if it is sensational news.



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  • new_horizon
    06-10 04:08 PM
    Done





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  • delax
    07-13 11:17 AM
    Was she sleeping all this while. Why did it take her 2 weeks to respond to the events that occured ? Looks like everyone wants a piggy back ride.:D

    We know your selfish intentions !!:eek:


    And has your lawyer sent a letter - if not, why is he/she still waiting to do so. Did you exhort her to do so. Will you exclude yourself from any AILF lawsuit benefit.

    You are missing the forest for the trees friend - Its not one agianst the other. Focus on the objective.



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  • sri1234
    05-27 11:44 AM
    I wonder what are the required documents for America born citizens if they don't have passports. Just a driver license? or they have to carry birth certificates always?

    I think American Citizens Drivers Licence do not have "Status Check" date where as Non-Immigrants have it.





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  • yabadaba
    09-10 04:02 PM
    Letter for Intl Student Associations

    Dear International Student Friend:

    You have put yourself through a lot over the past few years: traveled to a new country, put yourself through school, worked long hours in the lab, took on multiple on-campus jobs and loans, so that you could make a better life for yourself. Now, you are getting ready to graduate and join other high-skilled people like you who make this country one of the leaders when it comes to innovation and technological breakthroughs. We are proud of your accomplishments and look forward to welcoming you in the real world as your friends and colleagues.

    However, we wanted to make you aware of a grim reality that you will surely face in the coming months. Immigrant visas (commonly referred to as ‘Green Cards’) are currently severely backlogged across multiple categories and countries. You might be vaguely aware of this and may have heard rumors, but the truth of the matter is that most likely you will have to face years of waiting for an immigrant visa to be approved. This in turn will restrict your growth within an organization and at the same time prevent you from reaching your true potential. Even if you are finishing up your course of study from the topmost university in your field, it is more than likely that you will be impacted by the current immigration backlog. We write this letter because thousands of our members are in exactly the same place. We write this because we are in process of developing one of the most comprehensive grassroots organizations dedicated
    to helping skilled immigrants achieve their American dream and at the same time help in keeping this country competitive in the global markets.

    Our organization cuts across nationalities, job categories and pay scales. Even if you are finishing up your MBA from Harvard, it is likely that you will be impacted by the current immigration backlog. We are completely committed to
    securing a more transparent, predictable and fair immigration system. We ask you to visit our website at http://www.immigrationvoice.org and attend a rally on September 18th at Washington DC. We are running buses from your city to DC. All you need to do is visit the Immigration Voice website and sign up for where you are coming from.


    Regards,

    Your friends at
    Immigration Voice



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  • rockstart
    03-13 09:44 AM
    Has any one working on EAD experienced delays in renewals and how does HR department react to such delay's. Least on H1 it is clear that you can work for 8 months on receipt.





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  • apb
    07-19 08:02 PM
    My lawyer is asking for the tax returns for last three years for 485 filing??? I read W2s in the USCIS list but I do not know why he is asking for tax returns?? Any clue.....

    USCIS also checks whether you have been paying taxes. W2 alone does not help.



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  • gc_kaavaali
    12-21 09:22 PM
    I-94 is not attached with H1...does he needs to go out of country and get it stamped?

    AFAIK,a person can have only one status at a time.He is already in H1 if he had a I94 attached.However if he intends to travel out of the country and reenter he needs to get his visa stamped .If he has applied 485 then, he also has the option of using AP ,if it is approved.





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  • satishku_2000
    12-27 01:50 AM
    I travelled in last november thru hongkong. You dont need a transit visa but I felt humiliated with the treatment. Hope you know what I mean.

    And on another note My sis and her husband have been Bank Of America customers for a long time and they have decent amount of funds in their account .Their mortgage application was rejected by BOA because they dont have a GC only to be accepted by other lender and better APR on their loan :)

    I like this country and capitalism ...God bless America.





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  • mheggade
    07-14 12:00 PM
    EB2 dates may be unavailable/ dont move. But it is just for a very short span of time. And after that EB2 dates start moving quickly again. I presume by 2009 october, the EB2 India PD will close to 2008. Any retrogression, if there is, in EB2 will be very mild from now on because of the spillovers.

    Regarding EB3: Every year there had been about 100k approvals in EB3 category, out of around 160K(even though there are 140k visas, there have been approving more because they are using unused family visa numbers) approvals in Employment Based Category. This is because of vertical fall outs of visa numbers. Now they have changed the scenario to horizontal fall outs (spreading across at the same category level( ex. EB2) irrespective of country of chargeability.). So this time it would be around 100K approvals in EB2 category.

    Let us make as much noice as we could because of EB3 retrogression. That doesnt effect EB2 movement. But may make it possible visa numbers increase for EB category by legislation. So we have to support this agitation made by our EB3 friends.


    I could seee all the EB3 folks with PD older than 2006 and EB2 folks with PD older than 2008 will be cleared off in the next two years. I am sure there wont be not more than 1 or 2 years delay between EB2 and EB3 categories in near future.And there are lot of things going to happen for employment based immigratin in the next two years.


    This EB2 movement of 2 and half years is just a first step by DOS.

    vdlrao,

    Can you tell us , Which Crystal ball are you looking in to ?





    god_bless_you
    12-13 11:46 AM
    I think you should write an e-mail to the core team to get their attention on this idea.

    Do you think no one from core team reading this thread??





    nixstor
    07-03 12:38 PM
    There have been cases of folks using L1 A Visa. Big outsourcing companies (US & Indian- Does not matter) routinely file for L1 A (intra company transferee - Managerial) when the person is clearly not performing managerial job. Once on L1 A, folks can file for EB1 and get a GC very soon as it is mostly current. I have seen cases in the past like this. I do not know the status now, as DOL is coming down heavily with audits on PERM applicants. This is one area where only deserving people need to be awarded. This post is not to blame anyone, but people do use this Grey area I suppose to their benefit.

    AFAIK, this does not work for people who are already in the US. One has to work in their native or different county to be eligible for the EB1 managerial position here. Some one might have sneaked away this way at some time. But this is definitely not happening on a large scale as EB1 is current for all countries for quite some time. If a lot of folks are getting away, EB1 cannot be current for long time.



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