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Sunday, June 26, 2011

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  • transpass
    04-10 12:07 PM
    Here are the details for last year and years before:

    (Thanks to user "sangiano" on : link: FY2009 Visa Data, Spillover to EB2 - Will it be Similar FY2010 (http://www..com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/498198953/fy2009-visa-data-spillover-to-eb2-will-it-be-similar-fy2010))

    Employment Visas 2009

    Total Employment Visas for FY2009 = 141,020

    Theoretical values without spillover

    EB1 28.6% = 40,332
    EB2 28.6% = 40,332
    EB3 28.6% = 40,332
    EB4 7.1% = 10,012
    EB5 7.1% = 10,012

    Actual values with spillover

    EB1 40,978 = 29.1% received c.650 spillup visa used
    EB2 46,034 = 32.6% received c.5,700 spillover visas used
    EB3 39,791 = 28.2% received c.550 less visas than quota
    EB4 9,999 = 7.1% Zero spillup visas to give
    EB5 4,218 = 3.0% c. 5,800 spillup visas to give

    What is noteworthy is the fact that spillup/spillover visas were only available from EB5.

    In addition, EB1 actually consumed spillup visas and did not contribute any spillover visas as a result.

    This implies that the total spillover visas available to the 7% limited countries was only c.7,500. Since 5,800 came from EB5, less 650 used by EB1, this gives a subtotal of 5,150. In turn, this implies that there were only 7,500 - 5,150 = 2,350 as spillover from EB2-ROW. In the worst case the difference is entirely from EB5.

    I think it gives food for thought and shows the difficulty of trying to second guess visa consumption in Categories that are always current. I accept it might be easier to get a handle on non-NIW EB2 because of the PERM data available for ROW.

    I'm not sure why FY2010 would be much different, at least for EB1 spillover.

    Additional notes from subsequent posts:


    There was significant spillover in FY2007 because (based on 154,497 total EB visas) :

    EB1 only used 26,806 out of a possible 44,186 available visas.
    EB4 only used 4,794 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
    EB5 only used 793 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.

    That gives a potential spillover of 33,731 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2007 that mostly went vertically to EB3.

    There was significant spillover in FY2008 because (based on 162,949 total EB visas) :

    EB1 only used 36,590 out of a possible 46,603 available visas.
    EB4 only used 7,648 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
    EB5 only used 1,443 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.

    That gives a potential spillover of 24,060 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2008 that all went to EB2.

    The amount *was* smaller in FY2009 because (based on 141,020 total EB visas)

    EB1 used 40,978 which was more than the available visas of 40,332 (i.e. it used some of the spillup from EB4/EB5).
    EB4 used 9,999 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e it pretty much maxed out)
    EB5 only used 4,218 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e. much higher than previous years)

    That gives a potential spillover to EB2 of 5,161 visas, which is substantially lower than previous years.

    This is all his analysis based entirely on historic data (no predictions here; just what has already happened). All credit of analysis goes to him. I never crunched a single number; I am just an "integrater" of the info. Please also note that now we have found out that the word "spillover" should actually be "fall across and down"

    Hope this was the info you were asking for.

    Thanks Kondur. That was a very good presentation of the numbers. I very much appreciate it.

    Now,

    1. Why did EB1 last year needed spillover visas, although it was current all the time? If a category is current, isn't that it has less demand than allocated numbers?

    2. As per May bulletin, EB4 might need a cut off. So we cannot expect any spillover from EB4. So that is clear. Now the spillover chances are from EB5, EB2 ROW and EB1(?). I am including EB1 because, given the current economy over the past year, should there be a better possibility of more spillover from EB2 ROW and EB1 compared to last year?

    3. Also why are the total EB numbers different in different fiscal years (e.g., 141020 in FY2009, 162949 in FY 2008 and 154497 in FY2007)? In FYs 2007 and 2008 did the extra visas come from Family based while it did not for FY 2009? If so, why is it so?

    4. Based on Pending 485 data of March 2010, I barely see few hundred EB4s. And hardly considerable number of EB1s. What's going on? If we go by this data, we should be getting good chunk of spillover numbers...

    http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory-Total%203-8-2010.pdf


    Thanks,





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  • Suva
    06-11 11:29 AM
    Sent to NJ lawmakers.





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  • Hinglish
    01-08 10:04 PM
    May the best man win !





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  • ramus
    07-03 03:07 PM
    bump.



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  • bsbawa10
    03-09 01:38 PM
    I cannot express my anguish.





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  • sk2006
    05-26 11:39 PM
    I am sure they will ask for passport if you only have the I-94. Now if I am required to carry my passport all the time that becomes a real pain particularly if we are on H1/L1 and present for quite a long time.


    I 94 issued at POE must be attached to the passport all the times!



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  • kumar1
    12-11 12:05 PM
    Agreed! But when you call your bank to send you a debit card, they send it in days if not in weeks....that shows a sign of inter-dependability and a sense of need for each other. Sort of...I need you, you need me. You do not have to file MTR if they don't send you a debit card within 10 days.

    Compare that with US consulate and DOS VISA bulletin and GC process...


    Everyone goes to Bank and do transactions , that doesn't mean that we only need Bank and Bank doesn't need us and our deposits.





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  • gckp
    08-14 10:04 PM
    I guess nobody is waiting for it now....



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  • yabadaba
    07-28 09:03 AM
    Would you be offended if the image of Ganesh is used on a sack of rice or sugar or a bottle of cooking oil? If not, then what's the problem in using it on an alcoholic beverage bottle?

    its amrit..drink of the gods...so its befitting.





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  • amrutasanjiv8
    12-21 10:30 PM
    Hi ,

    I have H1B from my current company A. My fiance is having no visa so he is in India. He is in IT hardware field.....

    Also I am currently searching for jobs in IT hardware field in USA but as he is not in USA so no luck till now.....
    1) I am thinking of bringing him in USA after marriage on H4...the reason is it seems to be very difficult to find job in USA from India with H1 sponsorship ...As I have H1 , my fiance can have H4....On H4 he can not work in USA or apply for jobs in USA....plz confirm...

    2) So I am thinking of changing H1 to L1 by changing my current job .....Can I ask my new employer to sponsor L1.....or shud I ask my present employer to sponsor L1....what will be good for us?

    3) how much time H4 processing takes?

    3) If I get L1 from new/existing employer then will H4 of my dependent will get changed to L2?


    4) How much time does it take to process L1 and L2...

    5) Can a person on L1 change job in USA?

    kindly let me know your views as it is very much urgent .......


    Thanks,
    Amruta



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  • himu73
    03-29 10:46 AM
    there a plan to meet/call NJ senators





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  • ItIsNotFunny
    12-10 08:45 AM
    http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

    EB3-India moved for 15 days. This sucks.



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  • idlinginc
    04-09 03:40 PM
    Hello Everyone,
    I have created google group for NJ Chapter and there are four members in this group so far. If you can send me your email ID then I will let you join..

    Varsha: I will see if I can change ownership of group to you. It is much easier to communicate through emails then looking at chapter posting..


    Thank you
    ak27

    Dear ak27,

    Could you post the groups URL so that I can join?

    Best Regards.





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  • nixstor
    07-05 03:11 PM
    But I have been using murthy forums - which are free for a long long time...even before IV came along....talking abt quality...same kinda ppl post there....dont see any diff....

    I'm sure IV is doing a great job on something....but please do a little research before asserting that this is the only immigration forum in the world...

    Dont mean to start a p***ing contest here.... those who want to and can pay shd pay....but thinking that ppl will pay for the forums is not really a solution.

    No offense either. You cannot compare Murthy/Khanna forums with IV's. As long as you see IV just as a forum, you would not be able to make any distinction between IV & murthy/khanna forums. As I replied in another post, Murthy/Khanna get "invaluable" publicity that translates into clients shelling out $$$ in the long run. I hope you understand the difference.



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  • jcmenon
    07-25 01:22 PM
    "Dude/Dudette, I give up. The alien's eligibility and admissibility is decided at I-485 stage - FBI name checks, medical tests ring a bell? The law explicitly states that visa number availabililty is a pre-requisite for the adjustment of status application in 245(a)(3). If you can't understand - or choose to refuse to understand - plain English, have fun arguing with yourself".

    Dude I apologize if my line of argument is irritating you so much. btw 245(a)(3) is not plain english its legalese. And I'm not the one arguing with myself there are others in this thread who read the law along the same lines. Anyway this forum is for debate and thats what we are doing.
    Probably this option is not attractive to you that you are so pissed with it.

    Btw I'm contacting some attorneys on my personal expense to interpret this.
    If they reach the same conclusion as you I'll be happy to accept it, i have no issues and I'll post it on this thread.

    But the fact is at this point I still believe there may just be a 1% chance.

    Thanks a lot, please keep us posted about the outcome, even if we have one percent of hope, there is no harm trying that.





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  • guy03062
    11-11 05:00 PM
    Good one :p

    I am surprised that this thread is still active. Usually by this time somebody from the core group puts a statement and that usually closes the discussion. I am sure this will happen soon since atleast a few posters have been requesting asistance from Pappu regarding this issue. I am just waiting for that post to come...dont know when. Hey pappu why are you taking so long......why dont you post and tell all our friends who are currently so emotional about the reality of pursuing the legal option...



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  • pappu
    02-03 10:01 AM
    Guys,
    I know ROW country may not like this thread, but look at EB-3 India or China, put yourself in our shoes and than you may realize how unfair this country is. In this unprecedented financial turmoil, I feel there are very remote chances for CIR or any package which increase immigration etc would pass, I am taking this initiative to gather as many people I can and go to washington. Again this is not an IV effort. If you are with me , you can spare some time or few days in Washington, please PM me. our sole agenda is bring a 2 line bill to remove country quota...

    Hello Mirage,
    could you please update your profile dates so that it can help everyone in IV tracker. Thanks.

    While your concern is genuine, our experience says it is not that easy to remove country quota with a 2 line bill. IV will advocate for it, but understand that it will not happen in isolation and it is not feasible in an isolated bill. Lot of ROW have this misconception that IV just wants to remove country caps and help people of particular countries. That is not true. Our aim is to end retrogression for 'everyone'. Country caps is one of the ways by which we aim to do that. But understand an immigration bill will not have just country cap removal. That is not practical. There will be recapture and other possible measures like raising limit or backlog elimination specific measures with time limit.

    So do not fan emotions through the post because people start getting agitated without fully understanding the reality and what and how IV aims to approach this problem.

    We prefer that we help clear misunderstandings with other fellow members whenever they argue on this topic.





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  • logiclife
    02-17 04:47 PM
    Immigration Voice is a volunteer organization. It has been assured several times here on this thread that it is a part of "transparency" issue on IV goals as mentioned in the Brochure. Transparency includes everything. Including name-check process.

    Its a sub-item and not a main item because it is ONE OF THE SEVERAL administrative issues facing us.

    However, if people feel that this issue is not receiving enough attention, then there are few things to do besides posting here in this thread (posting is welcome):

    1. Call the phone number and speak to a volunteer. You will be connected to someone who is admin/founder of this organization. The phone number is under "Contact Us" menu.

    2. Go to resources menu and find out how to contact your lawmaker. See if you can find an appointment and apprise them of the issue. Although there is no legislative solution to this problem and it remains an enforcement/administrative issue, the basic feature of the government includes the congressional oversight on the executive(DOS, FBI, USCIS etc in this case).

    3. Ask your lawyer to file a lawsuit against the FBI for causing you irreparable damage due to mental agony, loss of pay due to missed promotions, job opportunities etc.

    4. Call your local media or national media and tell them the our dear FBI takes 36 months to check if a permenant residency applicant is a terrorist/criminal/shop-lifter/DUI/DWI etc or not while that applicant is free to work on provisional work-permit called EAD issued by USCIS. Two things: if there is nothing wrong with the guy, he suffers long wait for his greencard. If he is a criminal, he works and enjoys the American dream on his EAD instead of being deported.

    5. Send letters to Department of Justice (top levels) since FBI I think falls under Department of Justice.

    --logiclife.





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  • diptam
    08-15 04:25 PM
    Some of the recent GC and EAD achievers takes up a job at USCIS... How does this sound - Huh ??

    I think we will GC sooner than anticipated. I think those who filed in July/Aug will get in three/four years. Just a rough estimate. Any one agrees with me?





    sanju_dba
    09-09 01:50 PM
    This is a big fantasy.

    EB3 is not going to get current in the next 4-5 years you said.

    Backlog posted by USCIS and DOS is a lot more than posted. Their data is not totally right.

    The only way EB3 India can be current if all Indians on H1B, EAD are deported by a law. Such law is likely in 4-5 years if outsourcing increase and anti-immigrants blame immigrants for their unemployment. Then EB3 I will get current. But there will be no EB3I to take advantage of it.

    I say we stop dreaming and do a rally in DC.

    I understand what you said, but just to consider the off numbers published by dos

    http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf


    EB2 total pending 34325
    EB3 total pending 136325


    2010-2011 quota EB1+EB2 ( 85343 )
    less eb2 " " 34325
    --------------------------------------------
    " " 51018 trickeling down for EB3 Worldwide?
    2010-2011 quota EB3 ( 42671 )
    less eb3 - 136325
    --------------------------------------------
    42636 ( eb3 pending left over from above )
    2011-2012 quota eb1+eb2+eb3 128013

    So, with above math Eb2 will be current by next year, and eb3 will be by end of 2012?

    above math is based on
    inaccurate numbers given by DOS?
    assuming no new applicants applying.
    Hope I am correct! :)





    champu
    03-09 03:07 PM
    Eb2-i : 15-feb-04
    eb3-i: 01-nov-01

    Wondering who was doing GC during Nov 2001 time frame? Why the dates have not moved to 2003 when economy started showing signs of recovery? Do we have folks with PD for the last quarter of 2001.:confused:

    One more point...
    People looking for GC sponsoring employer may want to talk to these evergreen companies...;)



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